A commenter named Brad replied Oscar predictions piece I stood up over the weekend and said, “There was a time when I was expecting Oscar nominations. But I feel like it wasn’t a good time for the Oscars and with so many award ceremonies these days, the Oscars It doesn’t look as special as they did before.”
He has a point, as did Cate Blanchett when and during it Her acceptance speech for the Critics’ Choice Award, she wished that the “televised awards race” would end and everyone would be declared the winners. There’s so much hype and so many primary groups handing out the awards that Oscar nominations often feel like a rubber stamp these days, even if they’re apparently still the only truly coveted movie award. At 95 years old, it will still be the first line in the obituary of any winner or nominee.
But looking at List of candidates todayand especially Best Picture, can we say that any of them are actually Surprise? amazing? Scared? Have none of the names we’ve heard from critics (and yes, I admit I’m one of them), critics’ collections, award consultants, studio commercials, etc. been pounding in our heads since the season began in earnest at the end of summer? Big Trade Oscar Season Correspondent makes a living from “breaking news” publications on every prospect and every way to see who he can. Maybe They get nominated, even though 90% of them will never get nominated, but hey, maybe that encourages more ad buys. Our Gold Derby colleagues have an entire site dedicated to dissecting every combination of possibilities. Los Angeles TimesIt, like many big-city newspapers, has a special section devoted to the exciting coverage of the action leading up to the nominations and the ceremony itself.
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It’s not your dad’s Oscar race anymore, Brad.
So can Were there really any surprises? Well, a couple.
Some may be surprised to watch a Netflix movie in German, All Quiet on the Western Front Even nine Oscars including Best Picture, and maybe even Netflix itself, which has been significantly more paid Bardot And Glass onion: expels ambiguity earlier in the season (the former getting a screenplay name, the latter getting an adapted screenplay only). This movie was definitely in the mix but it wasn’t one that the viewer took in at high-profile fall festivals. I would like to say All is quiet It really is the only film out of the 10 nominees that was the idea of the Academy members themselves, just as it was the idea of the BAFTA voters, who He showered it with 14 nominations last week. Industry noticed simply because it is in Vision Movie, they knew it had the stuff. He’s been crystal clear in conversations with every Oscar voter I’ve spoken to in recent weeks king We saw that this was more than just a first runner for international films. All of this was confirmed when Shortlists are out Last month he was the co-leader. The only surprise to me was that the directors’ branch had overlooked Edward Berger (who has an Adapted Screenplay nomination, in addition to being an International Film Nominee director, though that attribution goes to the state).
It is true that the most internationally friendly branch of directors has gone to a foreigner, but it was Robin Ostlund who was responsible for Palme d’Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival Sadness triangle That also nailed the Picture and Original Screenplay nominations for the English-language debut of Swedish Östlund from Neon. Although France missed out on its international film entry, saint omer, This is another feather in the Cannes cover, following the South Korean phenomenon Bong Joon Ho. parasite, Went all the way from Palme d’Or to Sweep the Oscars in 2020. Again, this success is simply due to the electorate actually Vision The movie, and that Cannes award made it a must-see this season. I’m just sorry that the wonderful Dolly De Leon missed out on a Supporting Actress nomination for her brilliant performance in it.
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Critics can take credit for that Everything everywhere at once ranked first by the leading 11 nominations led by actors, directors, writers, and music genres. It was relatively weak in the areas of craftsmanship, however, with only costume and editing mentioned, so it was missing in areas like visual effects, cinematography, production design, sound, hair, and makeup in the Academy’s overall appeal. It’s a juggernaut for sure, and it’s actually an Oscars landmark film since it was released in March and premiered at SXSW, not usually the style of release for a major Oscar contender. It helped that she was a box office phenomenon for A24, which was an indie morning darling, and also garnered three nominations for Whale, Best Actor for Paul Mescal in a Movie, Other Critics after the sun, and animated name for Marcel the shell with the shoes worn, The latter two films were also strongly defended on the critics’ awards circuit.
No one was surprised by the great love for films from the studio’s specialized departments store, Scout with Anisherin from Inisherin Or with an interest in Steven Spielberg’s better picture Fablemans (seven labels) and MGM/UA’s women talking All of which were notables on the fall festival circuit, with the latter two coming in first and second, respectively, for the People’s Choice Award in Toronto.
Still, the premium offering of the big studio’s films should be heartening for Oscar show producers who desperately need marketing hooks to boost ratings, but anyone was surprised at this point in Warner’s film. Elvis (eight names), Paramount Top Gun: Maverick (Six) and Disney / Twentieth Century Avatar: Water Road (Four) Cut to Best Picture? Everything was widely predicted, though the three directors couldn’t get involved, including yet another snub of James Cameron. DGA list last week. Someone is telling the directors branch that the global box office isn’t just directing itself. This is another reason why the Academy should consider increasing the number of nominated directors to 10 in order to match, or at least give a fair picture of, the top 10 nominees for directors.
It is also notable that three of the best picture nominees – Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, everything everywhere at onceresponsible for 25 nominations, including – were all opened in the first half of the year, the fourth, Sadness triangle Seen in Cannes in May. The common wisdom is that you don’t unveil your serious Oscar contenders until Labor Day, when you also stop wearing white.
For most people TRUE It was a morning surprise Best Actress nomination About Britain’s Andrea Riseborough in the almost unseen lead actress race to Leslie. This was a tiny little indie film that premiered at SXSW (a big year for the March festival, which doesn’t figure much in Oscars conversation!) and then languished until its nominal theatrical “release” by Momentum Pictures, taking in a worldwide gross of $27,000 and change. . As I wrote two weeks ago in My notes are in the season columnI was contacted by a producer friend, Steve Jaffe, unaffiliated with the film, who, along with his wife Susan Blakely, was so impressed after seeing it at a small screening of Academy members that they joined in an activist campaign to get her performance noticed. He wanted recommendations on who they could hire/get to write about the movie, and that was the first time he entered my consciousness.
Frances Fisher’s girlfriend serendipitously followed a text: “I just saw LESLIE. Oh my God! Andrea Riseborough just climbed to the top of my list for Best Actress!!!” I received a link from Riseborough’s PR firm and immediately watched it, sensing something was going on. It’s an amazing performance, but such an uphill climb, especially It’s too late in the race for this to be noticed. Having written about this Guerrilla Oscar campaign, I realized that the column had been passed to some members of the casting branch just as the voting had begun as an example of the press interest for their sincere efforts to draw attention to a fellow actor. This was a pure “campaign” as I’ve seen it in decades, one with almost no money aside from getting the film onto the Academy’s digital screening room stand (generally it cost $20,000, which is roughly the total gross of the film), so it’s good to know in this case That the Academy’s casting branch (who are the ones who nominate) has proven your success can Make a difference without a studio or distributor pumping millions to influence voters. He may be the exception rather than the rule, but he may inspire others in the future, no doubt.
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In terms of disdain, if we must call them that, I was very sad to see the two of them The King’s Woman And until Completely shut down despite very active campaigning, especially for their co-stars, Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwiller. Maybe she’s either a SAG nominee for Deadwyler, who’s stunning as Mamie Till-Mobley, and Davis with blood, sweat, and tears for her performance in King’s woman You may have come out of Riseborough’s late rise in Uber’s lead actress race. What a shame for them, though. Oscar can act in mysterious ways.
I must say that I personally was very happy to see Jamie Lee Curtis, one of my favorites, receive her first Academy Award nomination as Supporting Actress for her Off the Wall performance in Everything everywhere at once. Interesting to note: It follows her late father and mother into Oscar history as all three now have a nomination to their credit. Tony Curtis won Best Actor in 1958 the challenge , and Janet Leigh was a supporting actress in the 1960s Psychologically ill. It’s a pretty short list of other families who’ve done it, with nominations from Fathers and Children earning representation: Fonda with Henry, Jane, and Peter; Bruce Dern, Diane Ladd, and Laura Dern; and the Hustons with Walter, John, and Anjelica. Congratulations to Jimmy Lee!
On the bright side finally actors Start Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe have both been nominated for their celebrity lives, and they’re finally going to the Oscars. Who would have guessed? Perhaps the most famous dead star of all time, even greater in death than life, and the eternal credit of film, is represented by Austin Butler, the lead actor award nominee in Elvis , and Ana de Armas, for the lead actress in blond, All in the same year.
Overall, surprises or not, it’s a pretty good list despite the disappointments. Blanchett, Ke Huy Quan, and Angela Bassett will be heavily favored in their individual acting races, at least until SAG weighs in on February 26, while Best Actor will be nail-biting. Everything is everywhere He rides in a burst of momentum and is probably the best front runner because of that, but the best picture race, because of the weighted ballot system that the Academy uses, is much more than that. Unpredictable than you might think. I can see two or three scenarios for the way things might play out, and one of them involves Top Gun: Maverick.
Maybe, Brad, the Oscar race isn’t as predictable as you think.
Continued. The Academy Awards will be presented on March 12th live on ABC.