Stock futures are rising slightly as investors take stock of earnings, and prepare for the Federal Reserve’s decision

There are mixed signals coming out of the futures market which has made Wolfe Research more positive in stocks. Futures contracts for the Nasdaq 100 index Analyst Rob Ginsberg wrote in a note on Monday that the big bulls have fallen 29% from the peak and the big bulls have now flipped into their most aggressive short positions in more than two years.

With the Fed on Wednesday and earnings from AAPLAnd AMZN And The Google On Thursday, the paradox in me gets even more optimistic.”

In other words, since so much of the bad news has already been priced in, anything positive from earnings or Federal Reserve Stocks can be good.

On Wednesday, the central bank is set to announce another rate hike, which is expected to be a quarter of a percentage point. Investors will also be watching to see what the Fed signals about any future increases.

– Michelle Fox

Civilian workers’ compensation costs rose at a slower pace in the most recent quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The Employment Cost Index, an important measure of inflation for the Fed, showed compensation increasing 1% in the October-December period. This was lower than the 1.1% estimate from the Dow Jones. It was also lower than the 1.2% increase in the third quarter.

On a 12-month basis, the ECI is up 5.1%, up slightly from the 5% gain in the third quarter.

– Jeff Cox

Here are some of the companies making the biggest moves before the bell:

• McDonald’s Shares fell more than 1% after McDonald’s announcement its most recent quarterly results. The fast food giant topped its profit and revenue estimates, saying customers are increasingly visiting its restaurants. Still, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempzynski said he expected that “Short-term inflationary pressures will continue in 2023.”
• United Parcel Service UPS shares rose 1.9% after the company reported profits that beat analysts’ expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.62 on revenue of $27.08 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of $3.59 per share and revenue of $28.09 billion per Refinitiv.
• Exxon Mobil – The oil giant came under pressure despite announcing optimistic financial results for the fourth quarter. The company, whose share price rose more than 80% last year, has seen tight supplies as economies begin to recover, CEO Darren Woods said in a statement. Shares fell more than 1%.

The more stocks that make moves in pre-market trading, click here.

– Hakyung Kim

Pfizer Shares fell more than 2% after the vaccine maker said it expected it to 2023 sales drop by up to 33% compared to a record in 2022.

The drugmaker issued sales guidance of $67 billion to $71 billion for 2023. Last year, Pfizer reported $100.3 billion in revenue, an all-time high buoyed by sales of its Covid vaccine and antivirals.

– Sarah Maine, Spencer Kimball

McDonald’s Shares fell more than 2% in premarket trading after the fast food company It reported its most recent quarterly results. The fast food giant topped its profit and revenue estimates, saying customers are increasingly visiting its restaurants.

The company posted earnings per share of $2.59, better than the $2.45 expected by analysts in a Refinitiv survey. It reported revenue of $5.93 billion, larger than the expected $5.68 billion.

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempzynski He said “Short-term inflationary pressures are expected to continue in 2023,” he said.

– Sarah Maine, Amelia Lucas

Exxon Mobil shares fell more than 3% despite the oil giant’s announcement of profits and revenues that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

Exxon earned $3.40 per share on revenue of $95.43 billion. Analysts had expected earnings per share of $3.29 per share on revenue of $94.67 billion.

“While our results clearly benefited from a favorable market, the countercyclical investments we made before and during the pandemic delivered the energy and products people needed as economies began to recover and supplies became tight,” CEO Darren Woods said in a statement.

Exxon shares are up more than 80% in 2022, thanks in large part to higher oil prices.

Larva Shares fell more than 3% in the primary market after the industrial giant reported its latest quarterly results. The company earned $3.86 per share last quarter, well below Refinitiv’s forecast of $4.02 per share.

“Earnings per share in Q4 2022 included an unfavorable foreign currency impact in the MENA region in other income (expense) of $0.41 per share mostly related to balance sheet translation,” Caterpillar said in a statement.

general motors It reported quarterly earnings that beat analyst expectations, which sent auto stock up more than 3% in the primary market.

GM earned $2.12 per share in the fourth quarter, beating Refinitiv’s forecast of $1.69 per share. The company’s revenue of $43.11 billion also topped the consensus estimate of $40.65 billion. In addition, GM predicted another strong year.

– Fred Imbert, Michael Wayland

International Monetary Fund on Monday It revised its forecast for global growth upward throughout the year, but he warned that rising interest rates and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely continue to weigh on activity.

In its latest economic update, the International Monetary Fund said the global economy will grow 2.9% this year – an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast in October. However, this number still means down from an expansion of 3.4% in 2022.

It also revised its forecast for 2024 to 3.1%.

Read the full story here.

Silvia Amaro

Stocks have so far had a strong start to the year after the worst year for stocks since 2008. This is where all the major averages stand before the last trading day of January.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• Up 1.72% for the month and year
• On pace for the third positive month in four

Standard & Poor’s 500:

• It rose 4.64% this month
• On track for best January since 2019
• Headed for the third positive month in four

Nasdaq Composite:

• up 8.86% in January
• On track for its best monthly performance since July

Samantha Sobin, Chris Hayes

These are some of the most moving stocks in overnight trading:

NXP Semiconductor — NXP Semiconductor stock fell more than 3% after first-quarter revenue forecasts fell short of analyst expectations, according to FactSet.

whirlpool — Shares of Whirlpool gained more than 1.9% in extended trading after the hardware maker shared strong guidance for the year. Fourth-quarter revenue came in slightly below analyst expectations.

Read the full list of shares Move after the bell here.

– Samantha Sobin

Ed Yardeni is more optimistic about the economy this year – asking investors and analysts to take a comprehensive look at the global economy.

“I think we should look beyond the United States, first, and see that there is more and more evidence that the global economy is better than people feared last fall. It looks like Europe is not going to have a recession, and we see China emerging from the Covid funk,” he said. Yardini on CNBC “Closing Bell: Overtime”.

“In the meantime, when we get back to the States, there’s still a big debate about soft landings versus hard landings.”

Yardini added that he expects a soft landing due to lower bond yields and an inversion of the yield curve.

The closely followed strategist also noted that while he believes the economy will grow at a slow pace this year, the worst is over. According to Yardeni, the economy has already experienced a “rolling recession” in the past year, with different industries and sectors experiencing recession during different periods.

Bearing in mind that the economy will experience a soft landing, Yardini said the Fed will not keep interest rates in the high 5% range for long, easing fears of an economic downturn caused by a higher fed funds rate.

“I think inflation is becoming very transitional,” he said. I am optimistic about inflation.

– Hakyung Kim

The economy will slow this year — but there are two ways for investors to earn profits in the market, according to Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate Research.

“I think there are two ways to beat the market this year,” Parker said on CNBC’s “The Closing Bell: Overtime.”

“There are cyclicals that are very cheap, and they can improve their balance sheets against this eroding background,” Parker said, “like pharma, metals, consumer finance and energy stocks.” “Or I have to get things that can make good gross profits through this eroding economy.”

“It’s too early to make a big bet, but there are a lot of software companies doing interesting things with the cloud, which will increase their bottom line,” he added.

The market has rebounded since the beginning of the year thanks to optimism about lower inflation and the prospect of slower interest rate hikes by the Fed. However, Parker added that he cautions investors against veering excessively to the downside or upside of the economy this year, saying that both extremes have their drawbacks.

“I’m not overly optimistic or bearish, but I think people are getting very negative,” he said. “…I don’t want to get so negative, you know, shut up in this bear den.”

– Hakyung Kim

Stock futures were slightly higher in overnight trading on Monday.

Futures related to the S&P 500 Index rose 0.19%, while futures related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.07%, or 25 points. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.19%.

– Samantha Sobin